bad air day?
With 2007 now firmly behind us - and all the data from the HK Observatory now in - we have the opportunity for a quick peek at how Hong Kong's pollution treated us over the year.
Annual API growth rate of 1.1%
In 2007, the average roadside API reading for Central was 66.4. This was around 0.8% higher than the previous year, and over 7% higher than 2000 levels. Over the course of the last seven years, the average Central roadside API reading has grown by an average of 1.1% per year. Assuming a similar growth rate in the future, Hong Kong's API could break a symbolic 70.0 by 2012. This is shown in the chart below.
Annual API growth rate of 1.1%
In 2007, the average roadside API reading for Central was 66.4. This was around 0.8% higher than the previous year, and over 7% higher than 2000 levels. Over the course of the last seven years, the average Central roadside API reading has grown by an average of 1.1% per year. Assuming a similar growth rate in the future, Hong Kong's API could break a symbolic 70.0 by 2012. This is shown in the chart below.
2007: An unusually good summer
With average API readings of 41.5 and 40.3 for the months of June and July, respectively, 2007 will be remembered for a summer of good clean air. Helped presumably by favourable climatic conditions (rather than government policy), these two months demonstrated a considerable improvement, even on data collected seven years ago.
Despite the good summer, air quality was still worse, on average, than the previous year. Although the summer was unusual, it does highlight the trend of considerably higher variability in the API readings. Standard deviation of API readings has been increasing as follows, 2005: 19.3, 2006: 18.9, 2007: 22.8. In 2000, standard deviation was just 17.3.
The following chart compares average Central roadside API readings from 2000 with 2007. The improvement in summer air quality is easily visible, as is the marked deterioration over the winter and spring months.
Outlook for 2008
2008 will likely be marked as a year of even greater variability. I expect that increasing manufacturing production in the PRD, along with continued high demand for electricity within the SAR will continue to push the API readings up. Environmental conditions – impossible to estimate – will probably remain the largest important external factor.
The Olympic equestrian events, held in Hong Kong in August, could potentially be a catalyst for the relevant PRD authorities to take action over summer. This, along with any nationwide efforts to clamp down on air pollution may also improve prospects.
2008 will likely be marked as a year of even greater variability. I expect that increasing manufacturing production in the PRD, along with continued high demand for electricity within the SAR will continue to push the API readings up. Environmental conditions – impossible to estimate – will probably remain the largest important external factor.
The Olympic equestrian events, held in Hong Kong in August, could potentially be a catalyst for the relevant PRD authorities to take action over summer. This, along with any nationwide efforts to clamp down on air pollution may also improve prospects.
Technorati Tags: smog, pollution, Hong+Kong, Newcastle, NUFC, Sam+Allardyce, API, air+pollution, Olympics, environment
2 comments:
But what happened on Saturday? I've not seen a beautiful day that is so clear in the last 2 years!
Yes -- seems like 2008 is off to a reasonable start. Although unusually warm for January, don't you think?
Today (Monday) is also very nice - and a little fresher.
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